Connect with us

Published

on

banner

Expert outlines implications of Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict on Nigerian economy

Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), has outlined the implications of the Iran- United States -Israeli conflict on the Nigerian economy.
Yusuf, via a statement on Sunday in Lagos, noted that its effects would be both positive and adverse, depending on the duration of the conflict and the quality of domestic policy responses.

Advertisement

He noted that the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel had injected a new wave of geopolitical risk into the global economy.
According to him, energy markets are the first transmission channel, with strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 per cent of global crude oil supply is transported daily.
He asserted that any disruption to this corridor would have immediate implications for global oil prices, shipping costs, insurance premiums, and supply chains.
“There is also the output disruption effect, as Middle East countries are major oil producers.

“For Nigeria, an oil-dependent economy where crude accounts for over 85 per cent of export earnings and about half of government revenue, the implications are significant,” Yusuf said.
The CPPE boss noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East historically triggered sharp increases in crude oil prices due to fears of supply disruptions.
He added that speculative risks around the Strait of Hormuz typically generated price volatility of $5–$15 per barrel within short periods.
Yusuf said for Nigeria, every increase in crude oil price translates into additional export earnings and fiscal revenues.
According to him, the immediate benefits include higher crude export receipts, improved foreign exchange inflows, strengthening of external reserves and increased FAAC allocations to all tiers of government.
“However, revenue gains are critically dependent on production levels.
“Nigeria’s current crude output has fluctuated around 1.4 million barrel to 1.6 million barrels per day, below installed capacity and vulnerable to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.
“Without a sustained improvement in production efficiency and security, Nigeria may not fully optimise any price windfall,” he said.
Yusuf also noted a medium-term risk, particularly if the conflict escalates and dampens global growth, oil demand could weaken, leading to price corrections.
He said the development could additionally reduce short-term pressure on the naira and reinforce investor confidence.
He, however, stated that given Nigeria’s relatively shallow capital market and sensitivity to foreign portfolio investment, volatility in global financial conditions could offset part of the foreign exchange gains from higher oil prices.
“The net exchange rate impact will therefore depend on the balance between stronger oil inflows and potential capital reversals,” he said.
Yusuf stressed the most immediate domestic risk from the conflict to be inflation transmission.
He said because Nigeria operated a deregulated downstream petroleum regime, higher international crude prices could feed directly into higher petrol, diesel and aviation fuel costs.
“The likely channels include rising pump prices, increased transportation/logistics costs, higher food distribution expenses and escalating manufacturing and logistics costs.
“Thus, while government revenues may rise, household welfare could deteriorate creating a divergence between fiscal gains and social outcomes,” he said.
Yusuf said the current situation presented an opportunity for disciplined fiscal consolidation.
He said priority actions should include saving part of any oil windfall in stabilisation mechanisms, reducing
fiscal deficits, moderating public debt accumulation and prioritising capital expenditure over recurrent spending.
He added that strategic imperatives should include strengthened oil production capacity with intensified anti-theft operations.
The CPPE boss advocated the importance of fiscal buffers by channeling excess revenues into stabilisation and sovereign savings frameworks.
He also called from deepened domestic refining to reduce vulnerability to imported refined products and enhanced transparency and liquidity in the foreign exchange market to mitigate volatility.
“Nigeria must also cushion vulnerable households against energy-driven inflation shocks, expand non-oil exports, manufacturing, agro-processing, ICT, and services to reduce external vulnerability.
“The Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict represents a classic double-edged shock for Nigeria.
“The ultimate impact will depend less on external events and more on domestic policy discipline,” he said.(NAN)

Advertisement
banner
Continue Reading
Advertisement

News

BREAKING; Police rescue Adelabu’s sister, twin sons alive, kill two kidnappers

Published

on

banner

BREAKING; Police rescue Adelabu’s sister, twin sons alive, kill two kidnappers

Operatives of the Nigeria Police Force have rescued Mrs. Olaide Busayo Adegoke John-Paul and her 12-year-old twin sons, Peter and Paul, during a rescue operation conducted on Saturday evening, three days after they were abducted in Oyo State.

Advertisement

The victims, including the younger sister of former Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, were freed at about 7:30 p.m. following sustained intelligence-led operations by security personnel.

Police sources said two suspected kidnappers were killed during a gun battle with operatives, while two firearms were recovered from the gang.

Advertisement

Mrs. John-Paul and her children were reportedly kidnapped at about 7:30 a.m. on June 3 while on their way to school.

According to security sources, intelligence gathering and continuous tactical pressure mounted on the kidnappers forced the criminals into a confrontation with police operatives, leading to the successful rescue of the victims.

Advertisement

The victims were rescued unharmed and have since been reunited with their family.

Meanwhile, security operatives have launched a manhunt for other members of the kidnapping syndicate who escaped during the operation.

Advertisement
banner
Continue Reading

News

Senator Ndume hails President Tinubu saysNorth would reward him with votes

Published

on

banner

Senator Ndume hails President Tinubu saysNorth would reward him with votes

Senator Ali Ndume, who represents Borno South in the National Assembly, has commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for approving the reconstruction and dualisation of the Gombe–Biu highway, describing it as a strategic intervention that will transform connectivity and economic activity in the North-East.

Advertisement

The federal government had on Thursday flagged off the 125-kilometre Gombe–Biu road project at a cost of N1.245 trillion under a major infrastructure renewal programme.

In a statement on Saturday, Ndume said the project would significantly improve regional integration, boost commerce, and strengthen security operations across affected corridors in the North-East.

Advertisement

He noted that he had consistently advocated for the rehabilitation of the highway under successive administrations, citing repeated engagements with key government officials over the years.

“In 2019, during a high-level engagement with the then Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Raji Fashola, which I initiated, I expressed concerns regarding the deplorable condition of the Biu–Gombe Road, emphasizing its strategic significance to economic integration, inter-state mobility, security operations, and regional development within the North-East subregion,” he said.

Advertisement

The senator added that he renewed his advocacy in 2021 during discussions on national infrastructure financing, where he again pushed for the inclusion of the corridor in federal priority projects.

“Also in July 2021, during an engagement with the Ministry of Works, during deliberations connected to national infrastructure financing frameworks, including projects tied to African Development Bank-supported facilities, I also made presentation on the urgent need to include the Biu–Gombe corridor within federal rehabilitation priorities, strategic funding windows, and long-term infrastructure development frameworks,” he said.

Advertisement

Ndume further disclosed that a letter he sent to the Minister of Works, David Umahi, on February 11, 2026, helped reinforce the case for the project’s approval.

“It is heart warming to note that my interaction with the present Minister of Works, Engineer Dave Umahi in a letter dated February 11, 2026, in which I drew his attention to the exclusion of the Biu/Damboa/Maiduguri all in Borno state in the 2026 Budget Four Legacy Projects of the present administration finally paid off as the Federal Executive Council (FEC) eventually approved the Biu–Gombe Road project under the federal tax credit and infrastructure intervention framework,” he said.

Advertisement

“The project was subsequently captured among strategic national road interventions financed through the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) tax liabilities arrangement.”

Ndume described the highway as a “strategic” economic and security corridor linking the North-East with other parts of Nigeria and neighbouring countries, adding that its rehabilitation would also help curb insurgency by improving mobility for security agencies.

Advertisement

While expressing appreciation to President Tinubu for the approval, the senator urged the Federal Government to extend the project beyond Biu to Maiduguri, Monguno, Ngala, and down to Yola.

“I want to appreciate Mr. President for listening to my calls. It is a laudable project that will unlock economic opportunities and improve the quality of life for Nigerians,” he said.

Advertisement

“Like Oliver Twist, we want to appeal to President Tinubu to extend the road network not only to Biu, but to Maiduguri and up to Monguno and Ngala, and then down to Yola.”

“Those are very critical roads that go down to the border that will also promote inter-country trade and also help in the fight against insurgency because they always take advantage of the bad road to block people and kidnap travelers on that road.

Advertisement

“I am sure that the people of the North East will appreciate this gesture of Mr. President and reward him with their votes in the forthcoming general elections.”

Advertisement
banner
Continue Reading

News

Tension in Political circles as INEC voids late Primarily elections

Published

on

banner

Tension in Political circles as INEC voids late Primarily elections

The firm stance of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on its May 30 deadline for the conduct of party primaries ahead of the 2027 general elections has triggered anxiety within several political parties, especially those considering fresh or rerun exercises.

Advertisement

INEC National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education Committee, Mohammed Kudu Haruna, warned that parties that conduct primaries outside the approved timeline risk having their candidates rejected, pending the outcome of ongoing legal disputes.

“Any primary held outside INEC’s May 30 deadline will be invalid unless the Court of Appeal overturns the Federal High Court judgment,” Haruna said.

Advertisement

The commission is currently challenging a Federal High Court judgment in Abuja which nullified parts of INEC’s timetable for pre-election activities, including the schedule for party primaries, on the grounds that the electoral body acted beyond its statutory powers under the Electoral Act 2026.

Although some political parties welcomed the court ruling, they have largely continued to operate within INEC’s original timetable to avoid jeopardising their candidates’ eligibility in the event that appellate courts rule in favour of the commission.

Advertisement

However, concerns have grown that compliance pressure may undermine internal party dispute resolution processes, particularly where rerun primaries are being considered.

In Kaduna State, members of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are already facing uncertainty following the party’s appeals committee order for fresh primaries in several constituencies over alleged irregularities, exclusion of aspirants and procedural breaches.

Advertisement

The committee, chaired by Dr. Muhammed Fagge, ordered reruns in Ikara/Kubau, Kaduna South and other state constituencies—an action that now risks clashing with INEC’s deadline.

Observers warn that unless the Court of Appeal intervenes, any primaries conducted after May 30 could trigger disqualification disputes capable of weakening opposition parties ahead of the 2027 elections.

Advertisement

Within the ADC, internal tensions have also intensified over leadership and candidate legitimacy. The party is currently divided into factions, with competing claims over its presidential nomination process.

At a convention held on Sunday, a faction led by Abdulkadir Mohammed Bashir adopted former presidential candidate Dumebi Kachikwu as its consensus flag bearer for the 2027 election.

Advertisement

This development comes after former Vice President Atiku Abubakar emerged as the presidential candidate of the David Mark-led National Executive Committee following its primary election.

Party sources said that after the May 25 primary, the Mark-led leadership adopted a dual strategy of managing grievances while processing nominations for submission to INEC, including activating appeal mechanisms established before the exercise.

Advertisement

The party had constituted a Presidential Appeals Committee chaired by Dr. Suleiman Usman (SAN) to handle complaints arising from the primaries.

However, despite public objections to the outcome, there is no indication that former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, formally submitted a petition to the committee.

Advertisement

Similarly, while businessman Mohammed Hayatu-Deen raised concerns about the process, party officials say there is no record of a formal appeal being filed.

Amaechi had alleged widespread disenfranchisement during the exercise, while Hayatu-Deen boycotted the collation and declaration of results, citing irregularities. Amaechi was also absent at the final announcement of results.

Advertisement

The absence of formal petitions has raised concerns within party circles, particularly as the appeals committee was set up specifically to address such grievances.

Party officials insist reconciliation efforts are ongoing, with internal mechanisms being deployed to resolve disputes across presidential and legislative contests.

Advertisement

At its 101st National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in Abuja on May 30, 2026, the Mark-led ADC ratified the outcomes of its state, National Assembly, governorship and presidential primaries, except where appeals were still pending or processes had not been concluded as of May 29.

The NEC also approved a 12-month extension of the National Working Committee’s tenure and affirmed the emergence of Atiku Abubakar as the party’s presidential candidate for 2027.

Advertisement

However, the crisis is further complicated by the rival faction loyal to Bashir, which insists its own convention and nomination process followed the ADC constitution.

Announcing Kachikwu’s emergence, chairman of the faction’s convention electoral committee, Hon. Elias Adikwu, said delegates adopted him through a consensus arrangement reached by voice vote.

Advertisement

Although Atiku has appealed for unity among party stakeholders, analysts say unresolved disputes and parallel structures within the ADC may continue to test the party’s cohesion as preparations for the 2027 elections intensify.

Advertisement
banner
Continue Reading

Trending

© 2025, All Rights Reserved | Crime Channels