Donald Trump’s Christians genocide allegation: Clarifying the facts

U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced on social media that he was redesignating Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern as a result of what he called serious violations of religious freedom.

A few days later, he threatened that he would consider potential military action to protect Nigeria’s perceived embattled Christians.

In response, President Bola Tinubu stated that the characterisation of Nigeria as religiously intolerant did not reflect the country’s national reality.

He also said the characterisation failed to account for the government’s “consistent and sincere efforts to safeguard freedom of religion and beliefs for all Nigerians”.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also vowed that Nigeria would continue to fight violent extremism, while expressing hope that the U.S. would remain a close ally in the fight.

Other countries and world leaders have risen in defence of Nigeria and cautioned Trump against any direct or indirect military action capable of destabilising the entire West African subregion.

ECOWAS strongly rejected what it called “these false and dangerous claims” that a “Christian genocide” is taking place in Nigeria and the West African region.

It also said terrorist-related violence did not discriminate based on gender, religion, ethnicity, or age.

China explicitly opposed the threat in a statement released by its foreign ministry.

“As Nigeria’s strategic partner, China opposes any attempt by foreign powers to use religion or human rights as a pretext to meddle in another country’s internal affairs or impose sanctions and military threats.’’

The EU Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Anouar El Anouni, stated that the union had “taken note” of the statements by the U.S. administration but remained focused on supporting Nigeria’s stability through cooperation.

“We respect Nigeria’s sovereignty and constitutional commitment to religious neutrality. Our position is one of solidarity with Nigeria.

“Solidarity with the victims of violence, with the authorities working to protect citizens, and with the Nigerian people, who overwhelmingly desire peaceful coexistence beyond ethnic and religious divides,” he said.

German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, praised Nigeria’s ongoing efforts in combating terrorism, describing the country as a valued and reliable partner for the European Union in the fight against radical extremism.

“Germany reaffirms its commitment to supporting Nigeria through capacity building, intelligence sharing, and humanitarian assistance aimed at restoring peace and development in affected regions,” he said.

Positive as the show of support appears; however, Trump’s comments had already created and reinforced conspiracy and counter-conspiracy theories.

The International Criminal Court and the United Nations Convention define genocide as acts committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.

Therefore, security experts are overwhelmingly in agreement that, although violent extremists, bandits, and terrorists have wreaked havoc on Nigerian citizens, the challenge does not constitute genocide.

One report suggests that, since 2009, Nigeria has not experienced a single, monolithic conflict but rather a “polycrisis” characterised by multiple, overlapping, and distinct forms of violence.

According to the report, the terms “terrorists”, “insurgents”, and “bandits” are not interchangeable, but represent distinct actors with different origins, motivations, and, most critically, different targeting strategies.

For perspective, Boko Haram targets Christians viewed as “infidels” just as it targets Muslims viewed as “apostates” if not aligned with its doctrines.

Bandits target both Christians and Muslims for ransom and pillage, including in villages, on roads, at mosques and churches.

Ansaru targets both Christians and Muslims for kidnapping and ideological violence, while communal militias’ violence is targeted along ethno-religious; for example farmer vs herder.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an independent, nonpartisan organisation, think tank, and publisher, argues that while Christians are definite victims of these groups, most victims are actually Muslims who are considered apostates or collaborators.

“Insurgents attack mosques and Muslim civilians whom they believe are collaborators with the government or do not adhere to their extreme ideology.

“Multiple reports conclude that Muslims, being the majority population in the North-East, have borne the brunt of the violence and constitute the majority of Boko Haram’s victims,” CFR said.

The CFR’s Nigeria Security Tracker (NST) cataloged political violence from June 2011 to July 1, 2023, based on a weekly survey of Nigerian and international press.

Before it was discontinued, the NST had documented more than 34,000 deaths from political violence, though its dashboard shows a cumulative toll approaching 100,000.

Its data was valuable for showing the conflict’s spread from Borno State across “every state in the North”.

The 2024 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) also noted that in 2023, Nigeria experienced its first increase in terrorism-related deaths in three years.

The GTI said the surge in terrorism-related deaths was “principally due to a surge in the conflict between ISIS-WA and Boko Haram”.

Experts say the report highlights the severity of the intra-violent extremist war.

They also noted that the Sahel region, which includes Nigeria, is now described as the “epicentre” of global terrorism, accounting for over half of all global terrorism deaths.

A report suggests that the alleged religious persecution viewpoint held by Trump and some members of his government might have come from a false assumption about Nigeria’s security challenges.

To the Trump administration, Nigeria’s security challenges have either become a pretext for, or have morphed into, a targeted campaign of religious and ethnic cleansing.

Therefore, some security analysts say the government at all levels should intensify efforts and collaborate vertically and horizontally to tackle insecurity.

“The trends visible in 2024 and 2025 suggest that Nigeria’s security crises (insurgency, terrorism, and banditry) are feeding each other…

“Without a comprehensive strategy that addresses the distinct root drivers of each conflict – ideology, economic collapse, and resource scarcity – the aggregate severity and the targeted killing along whatever lines are projected to continue,” an analyst said.

The generally accepted verdict is that Nigeria’s security situation is a complex crisis, not a simple two-sided religious conflict.

It is stakeholders’ submission that Christian and Muslim communities are equally significant targets for insurgents, bandits and terrorists, and ending the trend should be the priority, not labelling it.(NANFeatures)